The alternate count proposed earlier has come to pass. The spike below 1.04 and and immediate reversal most likely marks the last leg of the corrective/consolidation action.
The impulsive rally following the move adds credence to the bullish perspective. The two months of consolidation since the wave [1] peak has likely ended.
After trending for about 3 weeks, Euro has been consolidating sideways in what is potentially minute wave iv of [1].
While minute[1] itself might be complete at just above 1.42, the odds favor a lower low below that, before minute [2] counter trend rally can unfold.
Aussie is nearing wave 1 target and appears a wave 3 of some magnitude is almost complete.
The third of a third is definitely behind us. While we could see lower prices in the near term, the move is not likely to be as impulsive as it has been recently. The area just above 0.89 (wave (iv) peak) is likely to be short term resistance before hitting the wave 1 target near 0.86 or thereabouts.
Euro most likely has completed it’s initial impulsive decline. Wave 1 is either complete or will be on a break below the recent low.
It is time for Euro to slow down and consolidate in a wave 2 from here over the next few days. Prior wave iv and a possible Fibo level is just under 1.48, which is likely to be the minimum wave 2 target. Deep retracements are less likely since we are in a wave 3/C of a large degree.
With the trend change pretty much confirmed by now, it is time to step back and take a look at a slightly larger time frame and see where wave 1 could take the Aussie.
The short term internal Elliott Wave structure might not be too valid, technically speaking (for instance, the expanded flat wave (ii) could be incorrect). But the moves down are impulsive and the counter trend rallies overlapping. The area around 0.89 should provide some support, which should not hold for considerable amount of time. The area near 0.86 would be an ideal wave 1 target (but then reality is rarely ideal).
So wave 1 probably ends somewhere between these two regions.
Euro seems headed below 1.45 before it can stop to catch its breath. The nine wave decline is extending and so will likely unfold in 13 waves before wave 1 is structurally completed.
The 1.4625 pivot has been broken and the seemingly contracting triangles likely indicate a low that will mark wave 1 soon and a larger degree consolidating/correcting counter trend wave 2 rally can unfold.
Aussie’s short term Elliott Wave structure is not very clear, but the trend towards lower price levels is.
Either wave i low is in and we are currently working towards much lower levels in wave iii (with an expanded flat corrective wave ii high already in) or we are yet to make a 9th wave low that marks wave i (much like the Euro which has completed its 9 wave decline). This alternate scenario is not too very likely since this makes the most impulsive part of the earlier decline to be just wave i of iii, which should ideally be iii of iii.
Euro completes 9 waves down from wave [ii] peak.
The triangle mentioned earlier broke to the upside and was retraced immediately impulsively. It is possible to consider the triangle followed by the thrust to the upside to be the extent of the counter trend move as well. Either way, longer term trend is to the downside, even if the short term structure is not crystal clear. The triangle and its immediate preceding and following moves consumed a good amount of time, it could be technically enough. Alternatively, a move towards 1.48 (up to 1.49) would complete wave ii of [iii], before the decline resumes.
Euro’s impulsive decline could be stalling in the near term, before resuming soon.
Wave structure does not lend itself to clarity. Two potential possibilities are:
There is nothing here that warrants a bullish bias in a time frame that is longer than a few hours. This cements the viewpoint that we are in the middle of minute wave [iii]. Counter trend moves are likely to be difficult to identify without much hindsight.
The newly crowned king of the carry funding currency (having usurped that title from the lowly JPY recently) is rallying impulsively against all comers. Significant pivot levels and (multi month) trendlines have been broken.
As expected, Euro made a wave v low and turned around swiftly. It is clear that the declines are made with ease and rallies are taking more effort (and time). Wave [ii] retraced almost the entire wave [i] move, but took twice as much time. From here on out, retracements should not be that deep.
Swissy is exhibiting an almost exact structure (inverse, since it is USD/CHF).
Aussie is very similar too, but is potentially further in its structure in terms of time.
The Kiwi, as mentioned previously is following a textbook Elliott Wave pattern. Though at this time, either we are just about to complete wave i of [iii] or we have already completed a series of 1-2-(1)-(2) waves. Either scenario calls for continued lower price levels with 0.66 or thereabouts being the target for wave 1, before a meaningful rally can be attempted.
The Loonie has yet to tip its hand, with a potential low beneath 1.04 still on the cards.
But the longer term structure is clearly bullish (to the USD case).
$DXY’ structure is in sync with that of the Euro (and Aussie) as well. So the setups are all falling in place for a substantial USD rally to unfold over the coming weeks/months. The change in trend (and the resumption of the primary trend that started in mid 2008) is afoot. We are yet to complete wave 1 of this new pattern and even when it is complete, it would not be prudent to lean on the “counter trend” direction, since we will then be starting the large degree wave 3.
